It’s still all about work and creating jobs, sometimes in tiny increments.
Friday’s unemployment report showed very tepid growth in jobs – the private sector added just 50,000 jobs in January, or less than one-fifth what is needed to show improvement. Snowy weather may have hurt some sectors, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported, noting the jobless rate fell to 9.0 percent.
Five trends became clear in the reports out this week on employment and the economy:
1. Manufacturing may be making a comeback. After shedding jobs steadily for years, the sector has started hiring again. Companies in fabricated metal products, machinery, autos, electronics and more added jobs in January. Some will keep hiring as exports and domestic consumer demand both increase. Half the manufacturers expect to hire this month, and their trendline is up, according to the SHRM Line hiring forecast. It’s starting to look like the trend may be developing momentum. Check out the other sectors via the Bureau of Labor Statistics website and don’t be deterred by the array of numbers.
2. The United States has a huge jobs deficit to fill. Job losses in this downturn were twice as severe as the previous three recessions, the Economic Policy Institute reported this week. Besides the jobs lost to corporate and government cutbacks, the economy has not created an estimated 3.2 million jobs needed to keep up with America’s growing population, the EPI said in a report called The Great Recession’s Long Tail. This deficit will last for a long time, except in some labor markets that are strong.
3. Employers are selective in hiring. Job openings nationwide increased 65 percent from January 2010 to January 2011, Simply Hired reports. Yet many of those openings may remain unfilled for a long time, or may go to part-time staff or other insiders who jump into the opportunities. Many employers are cautious about adding costs; others want to avoid hiring problematic or un-adaptable people. For job seekers, this means you must be a “home run candidate” who is recommended by a current employee.
4. Small is beautiful for job seekers. Small companies – those with 50 or fewer people – hired more than eight times as many workers in January as large companies, according to the ADP National Employment report. Start-ups and smaller employers that fly below the media radar may be the best bets for job hunting. These can be found by attending business organization meetings, chamber mixers – or by wandering around a business park or an office complex. What Color Is Your Parachute? author Richard Bolles says this walking into any organization that looks intriguing is one of the most successful strategies. When thinking small, think too of health care, which dominates Simply Hired’s list of the top regional hiring companies.
5. The gig economy is growing. People are taking freelance assignments, contract work, short-term projects as a way to tide themselves over. For many though, those turn into a new career path.
There’s no clear measure of this sector, though an indication may be the shrinking labor force which the EPI figures is 4.9 million smaller than at the start of the recession. Some of those turned themselves into reluctant entrepreneurs offering home repairs, dog walking and web design services. Some may be able to build up their clients and develop full-time work (as I am attempting to do as a freelance writer) but many will be stuck with very part-time work and pay.
The bottom line: Pay attention to the national trends and see how you can capture opportunities or momentum from some of them, if that works for your career or business goals. Otherwise, focus on your own plans and work relentlessly to create your own trendline.
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I agree with all of your trends except number 1. I may, however, be interpreting what I’m reading incorrectly. The statement “Manufacturing is making a comeback” I think is a bit misleading. Yes, it is making a comeback – but 1) Not in the US nearly as quickly as in other countries and 2) Yes – we are manufacturing, but it is not providing more jobs for “people”. It is providing for more efficiencies and machines ( ; but not ‘humans’.
That said, again – I may have been misinterpreting and I think your other 4 trends are dead on. Solid post – short, to the point, and well informed.